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6/10/2020 4:48 pm  #191


Re: National Dashball League

I’m starting to give up on this. When was the last time Texas actually lost a stupid game?!?!?!?!?!?!




 
 

6/10/2020 5:13 pm  #192


Re: National Dashball League

Texas, Our Texas! All hail the mighty State!

 

6/10/2020 9:20 pm  #193


Re: National Dashball League

Holy... Mother of God! 50-0 is absolutely insane. What was the probability of that happening?



AHS Admin. Creator of the THLPUCHWHA: Redux and Retroliga.
 

6/10/2020 9:29 pm  #194


Re: National Dashball League

Steelman wrote:

Holy... Mother of God! 50-0 is absolutely insane. What was the probability of that happening?

Holy mother of god is right




 
 

6/10/2020 9:40 pm  #195


Re: National Dashball League

Even God loves the Redbacks

All Hail...





 

6/10/2020 10:14 pm  #196


Re: National Dashball League

In the words of Kevin Harvick, “They have a Golden Horseshoe stuck up their a**.”




Charlotte Racers (2016 AltHL Champions) St. Louis Explorers (2000 & 2011 AltBowl Champions) Minnesota Giants (2000, 2004, 2006 & 2014 AltBA Champions)
"The prosecution is ready, Your Honor. That is a pepper, of course."
 

6/10/2020 10:24 pm  #197


Re: National Dashball League

Steelman wrote:

Holy... Mother of God! 50-0 is absolutely insane. What was the probability of that happening?

I mean a few years earlier, they went 40-0 and lost only one game in the playoffs, to Toronto of all teams. 


 

6/11/2020 12:53 am  #198


Re: National Dashball League

Rugrat wrote:

I’m starting to give up on this. When was the last time Texas actually lost a stupid game?!?!?!?!?!?!

June 11, 2025 (exactly 5 years from today) at home against the California Sea Lions by a score of 129-122. The 2026 regular season completed on June 29, meaning it has been 383 days since they've lost a single game. It's been a good time to be a Redbacks fan.

Steelman wrote:

Holy... Mother of God! 50-0 is absolutely insane. What was the probability of that happening?

So in order to answer this question I'm gonna need to explain the process I use to simulate. If you don't care and just want me to give you an absurdly low number, don't open this spoiler:

Each player in the NDL has an offensive and defensive rating, which in theory is on a scale of 0-10 but in practice has gotten a bit out of hand. All players also have what I call a yearly rating modifier or YRM, which shows how much better or worse a player performs over the course of a season than they were expected to and which typically ranges from about -3 to 3 on a normal distribution (where +3 is a completely out-of-nowhere good season and -3 is probably a career ending injury). I do all transactions in the offseason without seeing any player's YRM so as not to bias anything, and so I'm in the same boat as all the teams would be when signing free agents and making trades. That of course means that a team can get extremely lucky and have their rating jump a huge amount, or extremely unlucky and get hit by a ton of injuries. The Redbacks were a couple of percentage points better than their competition going into the season (a 9.34 average rating compared to the Sea Lions, who were second with 9.05) and actually had a rather average season, with an average YRM of -0.0063, but California and Seattle dropped by -0.56 and -0.5 respectively. Of the 90 team-seasons in NDL history up until 2025, only two teams (the 2019 Row and 2024 Sabertooths) had ever had average YRMs worse than -0.5. The probability of two teams in a single four-team division falling by over half a point, by that standard, is 0.283%. Using actual statistics, the numbers are slightly lower, with the probability of a single such YRM at 1.84% (as opposed to 2/90 = 2.22%) and the probability of two in the same division at 0.196%.

tl;dr: about 0.2%, or once in every 500 seasons.

Last edited by ItDoesntMatter (6/11/2020 1:45 am)

     Thread Starter
 

6/13/2020 9:54 pm  #199


Re: National Dashball League

Atlanta Records vs Texas Redbacks
If this one gave you a major sense of déjà vu, you’re not alone. If these series were actually competitive, Atlanta and Texas might be developing into one of those cool out-of-division rivalries that happens when two teams meet in the playoffs every year, but instead, Records fans just hate the Redbacks for the same reason everybody else does: because they just keep on winning. Atlanta can take solace in the fact that this series was quite a bit closer than the last one, with an average margin of victory of just 44 points, but the Redbacks were always gonna win this series, and they continue their undefeated streak into the second round.



Seattle Sawyers vs Nashville Fugitives
In contrast to the 1-vs-8 series, the second through seventh seeds were all expected to be very close. Seattle’s record wasn’t all that close to Nashville’s, but they came into the playoffs rather hot and were expected to at least give the Fugues a run for their money. They certainly did that in Game 1, as the two teams turned in a classic, trading points and occasionally runs back and forth until a 5-point toss from B/K Will Baker to F/C Michel Blanchard gave Nashville some breathing room, and the Fugitives would go on to win by 11. Unfortunately, Game 2 would be disastrous for Nashville. In the first inning, W/ZB Fred Stinson went down with a wrist injury, and then in the third inning, his replacement, W/ZB Tracy Battle, also had to be taken out of the game with a shoulder injury. Nashville was forced to turn to rookie W/ZB Ian Hills, and while Hills made some incredible plays on defense, his offense was a bit of a liability. In part due to that, and in part due to sloppy play all around, the Fugitives only scored 80 points in front of their home fans, letting Seattle run away with an easy win and a split as the series shifted to the Pacific Northwest.

With more time to plan, the Fugues came into Game 3 and seemed to have patched things up. They slowed the pace down, cleaned things up, and stayed in the game, even holding a lead as late as the sixth inning. Unfortunately, Seattle’s defense came in clutch, particularly their four-headed monster of F/ZB Walt Duncan, W/ZB Earl Howard, and B/ZBs James Terry and Clyde Kamai in the end zone who did not allow a single touchdown pass in the final frame, giving Seattle a 2-1 lead. Game 4 went similarly, and the game was within one possession for the majority of the time. It came down to the final minute, where Seattle F/ZB Williams Denson hit a dagger 5-point bucket to put the game away. With their backs against the wall in Game 5, Nashville couldn’t get anything together in the first half. The Sawyers went up 84-57 at halftime, and while the Fugitives would mount a valiant comeback, it would ultimately fall short, and Seattle would move on to face Texas in the second round.



California Sea Lions vs Miami Palms
If Game 1 between Nashville and Seattle was a classic, Game 1 between California and Miami was legendary. The teams battled back and forth the whole game, and when Palms B/C Steve Locke found W/ZB René Siemann to put the home side up 1 with just 4 seconds to go, they thought they’d clinched it. The crowd thought the same thing, and many in attendance were still cheering, even as the clock hit zero and even as Sea Lions B/ZB Kenton Snowberger’s half-court heave gave the Sea Lions a thrilling last-second win. Miami came out in Game 2 looking to avoid losing two in a row at home, and they did just that, as B/ZB Gerald Hartline’s 44 led them to a 160-124 win in Game 2. They were able to take the lead in the series in Game 3, holding the Sea Lions to just 103 in front of their home crowd, highlighted by multiple highlight-reel plays by both Hartline and W/ZB Terry Rothgeb to knock away potential scores.

Like Miami earlier in the series, California would be trying to avoid dropping back-to-back home games in Game 4. W/K Will Orleans scored 35 opposite Snowy Snowberger’s 33, but their combined performances weren’t enough to put the game away. Miami came out strong in the final frame, eventually taking the lead and sealing the deal when Terry Rothgeb picked off a forced pass by California B/ZB Amando Thomas. Rothgeb found B/K Joel Drain for a dagger, putting the Palms up 3-1 in the series. Back on the black court in Miami, the Palms would cruise past the dejected Sea Lions to clinch a spot in the semifinals.



Philadelphia Row vs Chicago Frost
Let’s see: two division rivals, two original teams, two groups playing at about the same level? Yup, we’ve got all the ingredients for one hell of a series. That came through in flashes in Game 1, where the Row won a defensive battle that very much benefitted their style of play. Chicago didn’t take kindly to being held under 100 points in front of their home crowd, and came out with a vengeance in Game 2. The Frost changed up their style of play, avoiding the crease almost entirely in order to stay away from F/K Ray Thomas and B/C Ben Elkins on one squad and B/K LaVarius McCargo and B/C Sora Matsuѕhita on the other. More importantly, though, their passes were hitting and their jump shots were falling, and with B/ZB Tony Bennett’s 36 leading the way, they dropped 159 to tie the series at one game apiece.

Game 3 in Philadelphia was the first where neither team was really able to control the pace of play. The Frost offense was running smoothly, but the Row came up with some big stops and were able to keep up. Ultimately, two clutch shots by Chicago F/C Ben Bowman gave the Frost the lead down the stretch, and they would hold on to win by 9. Philly would respond in Game 4 with another big defensive performance combined with their best offensive showing yet, with Thomas and McCargo combining for 102 points contributed on opposite squads, leading the Row to a convincing win and evening the series up once again. In an all-important Game 5, Chicago’s defense would step up, highlighted by several huge stops from B/C Ralph Rashke and a dominant night in net by W/K Nico Boyer. The Row would only reach a century in garbage time, and the Frost would take a 3-2 lead as the series moved back to Philadelphia.

Game 6 was a shootout, or at least as much of a shootout as these two defense-heavy teams could muster. The lead went back and forth the whole game, with 13 ties and 24 lead changes. With the Row playing for their season, the game would come down to a final possession. With the Row down one, B/ZB Charley Parker found W/ZB Isaaq Davis inside the three-point arc. Davis went up as if to take a jump shot, but instead, fed a pass through the crease to a streaking Sora Matsuѕhita. With just seconds left, Matsuѕhita had to get the ball out of his hands somehow, and decided his best course of action was to drop it to his foot. His kick just beat a diving Nico Boyer to give Philly the lead. Chicago didn’t even have enough time to dig the ball out of the net before the buzzer sounded, and the two teams would be headed back to the Windy City for a seventh game. In that game, the Row were able to pull away in the third inning thanks to a 20-point inning by Ray Thomas, and they held the Frost just far away enough for the rest of the game, taking a 127-115 win and the final spot in the second round.

Last edited by ItDoesntMatter (6/14/2020 12:22 am)

     Thread Starter
 

6/13/2020 10:01 pm  #200


Re: National Dashball League

Let's see here...

Atlanta losing, good.
Texas winning, bad.
Seattle winning, good.
California losing, bad.
Chicago winning, good.

I suppose it was an overall good first round for my allegiances. I'd just like someone to take a game off Texas, they need to have someone put their ego in check, man.


 

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