Yep thanks for the patience everyone. I was annoyed this morning when I discovered the issued and felt bad to change things at the end. Ultimately I think we'll get a legitimate playoff field. Thanks again! 

I realized that because of our shortened season, luck also played a factor in the opponents each team played this year. It's not 100% accurate yet (because the season isn't over, it'll be correct after this week but not much will change) but I added a method of quantifying that and adding it to a team's Luck Number. I counted the wins of the teams a team doesn't play, divided it by 21 (7 * 3, represents the median wins a team should have) and added that number to the previous Luck Number.

The biggest loser here is Denver: by missing out on playing Charlotte(!), Chicago, and Philadelphia, that's a combined 10 wins, which is the lowest amount of any team. This moves the Bighorns' Luck Number down from 0.003 to -0.520. San Francisco moves to most luck-neutral at 0.064. This new wrinkle only reinforces Minnesota's position as unluckiest team in the AltHL, placing them as the only team below -3. The biggest winner is Boston, who's absurd 29-win team avoidance (WPG, POR, HFX) gave them a massive 0.381 boost to their Luck Number, moving them above Portland.

In conclusion, if I miss the playoffs, this is why.

Here's the link again, just to have it.

Last edited by QCS (4/12/2021 9:55 pm)

After an entire week of it looking like LA and Denver would both lose in their bids to take the last playoff spot. Two losses would send the Titans to the playoffs. 

But today...

The LA Titans have cut the Halifax lead to 1! 

The Denver Bighorns have cut the Seawolves lead to 1.8! 

It is going to be one exciting final day of the regular season. Good luck to you both.

Stickman wrote:

Gritty wrote:

After an entire week of it looking like LA and Denver would both lose in their bids to take the last playoff spot. Two losses would send the Titans to the playoffs. 

But today...

The LA Titans have cut the Halifax lead to 1! 

The Denver Bighorns have cut the Seawolves lead to 1.8! 

It is going to be one exciting final day of the regular season. Good luck to you both.

This really is going to be a fun day!  Keep in mind too that the Charlotte Racers are beating the Calgary Wranglers, so if the Titans win and they lose, that's the difference between facing the Montreal Chevaliers and the Portland Sawblades (a team we barely scrapped by last week ).  Plus, the Winnepeg Arrows certainly haven't put the New York Gargoyles away either.... meaning best case scenario, the Titans actually could rematch the Halifax Kingfishers next week!

Best of luck to everyone!

Yeah, but if the Wranglers lose, and the Titans and Bighorns win, then Calgary misses the playoffs by virtue of losing the head-to-head with me. It'll be tough (and CC picked the worst week to return, might I add) but I have faith in Denver.

Steelman wrote:

QCS wrote:

Stickman wrote:

This really is going to be a fun day!  Keep in mind too that the Charlotte Racers are beating the Calgary Wranglers, so if the Titans win and they lose, that's the difference between facing the Montreal Chevaliers and the Portland Sawblades (a team we barely scrapped by last week ).  Plus, the Winnepeg Arrows certainly haven't put the New York Gargoyles away either.... meaning best case scenario, the Titans actually could rematch the Halifax Kingfishers next week!

Best of luck to everyone!

Yeah, but if the Wranglers lose, and the Titans and Bighorns win, then Calgary misses the playoffs by virtue of losing the head-to-head with me. It'll be tough (and CC picked the worst week to return, might I add) but I have faith in Denver.

I'm not sure if that's true because Calgary has the head to head against LA from Week 1. They also have the most points between the three teams. If all three teams are 8-6 then I think it will be Calgary and Denver by the skins of their teeth.

Yeah, if all 3 of us are 8-6, I miss out on the playoffs by virtue of losing games to both Calgary and Denver early in the year.

However, if QCS' scenario happens, where L.A. and Denver win today and Calgary loses today (and all those games are close, so it could happen), that would mean the following...

Los Angeles goes to 9-5
Denver goes to 8-6
Calgary goes to 8-6

Denver beat Calgary earlier in the year, so they would win tie-breaker if I'm not mistaken.  That would me that Calgary really could still miss the playoffs, a scenario I didn't even think was possible at this point!  

Just adds to the excitement!